HURRICANE LISA - 2004

HURRICANE LISA 2004

LISA REPORTS:

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004
 
AFTER NEALY TWO WEEKS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...LISA
REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE 8TH HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON.
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND
THE EYE FEATURE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CONSEQUENTLY...
SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION...
LATEST AVAILABLE SSMI SHOW A RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE
AND AMSU ESTIMATES ARE 64 KNOTS AND 987 MB PRESSURE. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...LISA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE. HOWEVER...LISA
IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
SOON.
 
LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 19 KNOTS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THEREFORE
...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. LISA IS EXPECTED TO TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL STORM LISA
OCT 02 2004
 
THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE EAST AND MOST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED.  ALSO WHAT CONVECTION THERE IS LEFT
HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY.  A 21Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS MAX WINDS NEAR
50 KT AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT OR LESS.  SO THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS REDUCED TO 50 KT.  THE CENTER IS OVER THE 20 DEG SST
ISOTHERM OR LESS AND THE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS A WHOPPING 40
KT.  SO LISA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/23.  LISA IS BEING SWEPT ALONG IN THE
WESTERLIES AND WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  

ALEX  BONNIE  CHARLEY  DANIELLE  EARL  FRANCES  GASTON
HERMINE  IVAN  JEANNE  KARL  MATTHEW  NICOLE

PHOTOS: CHARLEY  FRANCES  IVAN  JEANNE
2004 Hurricane Briefs