HURRICANE KATRINA
FRIDAY FORECAST WARNINGS

Hurricane Katrina Forecast - Friday, August 26 - 10 PM CDT
FORECASTS
NEW ORLEANS HAD A WEEKEND OF WARNINGS:
BULLETIN: HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY
NATIONIAL WEATHER SERVICE / NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRIDAY AUG 26 2005
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND CONSISTS OF
A PERFECT A COMMA-SHAPED CLOUD PATTERN WHICH BEGINS OVER WESTERN
CUBA AND WRAPS AROUND A LARGE CLUSTER OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THIS
BAND IS PROBABLY PRODUCING NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT CLEARLY
VISIBLE ON IR IMAGES...RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION....

...THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN OBSERVED IN INTENSE HURRICANES.
IN ADDITION...KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM
LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH
OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS
KATRINA TO 115 KNOTS...OR A CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE... 
 
KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE STUBBORNLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
250 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF A VERY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER MEAN HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS. IN FACT...DATA FROM THE
NOAA JET JUST RELAYED BY THE METEOROLOGIST ONBOARD INDICATE THAT
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BE VERY STRONG. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND LEAVE A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.  KATRINA WILL LIKELY TAKE THAT OPPORTUNITY AND
BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE INTENSE
HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS OR SO. 
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST
OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN
THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI.  THIS
CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA

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