HURRICANE KARL - 2004

HURRICANE KARL 2004

HURRICANE KARL HEADS OUT TO SEA

Friday, September 18th, 2004
 
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10 ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL
WHICH BECOMES ERODED BY 72 HOURS FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

KARL IS LOOKING GOOD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED
EYE AND BANDING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/90/77 KT FROM
TAFB/SAB/KGWC.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT.  CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS
AFTER WHICH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL
EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE.

ALEX  BONNIE  CHARLEY  DANIELLE  EARL  FRANCES  GASTON
HERMINE  IVAN  JEANNE  LISA  MATTHEW  NICOLE

PHOTOS: CHARLEY  FRANCES  IVAN  JEANNE
2004 Hurricane Briefs